No love for Brock? Here’s why 49ers QB Brock Purdy is actually UNDERRATED

No love for Brock? Here’s why 49ers QB Brock Purdy is actually UNDERRATED

Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey

Purdy’s season is one to remember.
The San Francisco quarterback has been quietly enjoying an unprecedentedly productive season.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

At the end of the season, Purdy would have the sixth-highest yards per attempt (9.4, first in the NFL) in the Super Bowl era and the 17th-best single-season passer rating in league history (112.3). Nobody is gaining yards per pass more than Purdy, and he has been instrumental in the San Francisco 49ers’ 8-3 record and league-high 130.43 projected points gained on offense.

All-Time Single-Season Rank

Player

Year

Passer Rating

Season Notes

15

Joe Montana (SF)

1989

112.4

NFL MVP, OPOY, Super Bowl Champion

16

Deshaun Watson (HOU)

2020

112.4

Pro Bowl

17

Brock Purdy (SF)

2023

112.3

TBD

18

Tom Brady (NE)

2016

112.2

2nd-Team All-Pro, Super Bowl Champion

19

Aaron Rodgers (GB)

2014

112.2

NFL MVP

In actuality, the 49ers lead the league in projected points added through passing (126.93) despite ranking dead last in total pass attempts. They are light years ahead of the Dallas Cowboys in second place, who are at 0.26 expected points added per dropback and 1.41 standard deviation above the mean. Their 0.38 expected points added per dropback is 2.26 standard deviation above the mean.

It is admirable what the 49ers are doing with the passing game, and typically, the MVP candidate in the league would be the quarterback leading such a lethal passing assault. But Brock Purdy hasn’t received those accolades; instead, the guys who surround him have received the majority of the attention.

The 49ers boast an offensive line that includes Trent Williams at left tackle, George Kittle at tight end, Christian McCaffrey at running back, and wide receivers Debbie Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.

The 49ers have one of the coziest quarterback pockets in the game with Kyle Shanahan at the helm, and Purdy’s arsenal of weapons has caused many experts and talking heads to write off his statistical achievements as mere coincidences. But his age is a crucial detail that is consistently missed.

Brock Purdy’s age is overlooked

Purdy’s youth should be used to display how impressive his performance really is

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Although he won’t be 24 until December 27, Brock Purdy has made 16 starts in the NFL. He is about to finish his debut season, all things considered. Even though Purdy has benefited from a friendly offensive environment, players this young and inexperienced—regardless of their surrounding cast—just aren’t meant to produce at this level. Those who succeed are the greatest.

After only Patrick Mahomes and Kurt Warner, Purdy has the third-best passer rating of any quarterback in NFL history through his first 16 games with at least 100 pass attempts. Dak Prescott, Dan Marino, Ben Roethlisberger, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, and Robert Griffin III are in order of precedence after him. Extremely favorable surroundings are what all of these great quarterbacks have in common.

Rank

Player

Passer Rating Thru First 16 Games

1

Patrick Mahomes (KC)

111.8

2

Kurt Warner (STL)

110.2

3

Brock Purdy (SF)

107.2

4

Dak Prescott (DAL)

104.9

5

Dan Marino (MIA)

104.8

6

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)

104.7

7

Deshaun Watson (HOU)

101.7

8

Russell Wilson (SEA)

100.0

9

Robert Griffin III (WAS)

99.6

Andy Reid was Mahomes’ coach when he entered the league, and he had Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill as targets. Warner could rely on Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, and Marshall Faulk. Prescott had Jason Witten and Dez Bryant to target in the passing game, along with the finest offensive line in the league to create holes for Ezekiel Elliot.

Don Shula was Marino’s coach, and he had the Marks Brothers, Duper (a three-time Pro Bowler) and Clayton (a five-time Pro Bowler), to catch passes. Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress were two of Big Ben’s Pro Bowl wide receivers. Watson had Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins.Wilson had the Legion of Boom defense supporting him and the luxury of handing the ball off to Marshawn Lynch 20 times a game. Griffin had both Shanahans scheming the deadliest run-pass-option in NFL history.

Since football is a team sport, quarterbacks aren’t expected to improve their team’s performance early in their careers, even if the best quarterbacks in history have the ability to do so. Purdy’s age and experience seem inconsequential in this instance, which is incredibly unfair to the story that surrounds the former Iowa State student.

C.J. Stroud has been rightfully hailed as one of the next great quarterbacks after he set fire to the rookie throwing record book. He’s had five less career starts than Purdy, who’s been the far superior statistical performance this season save from passing volume measures. Purdy, however, wears the title of game manager, and Stroud, that of franchise quarterback. Why is it that two players with similar levels of experience and statistical excellence are deemed to have such divergent destinies?

Draft pedigree can follow a player

The fact that Purdy was Mr. Irrelevant at the 2022 draft is held against him

Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrevelant

A factor working against Purdy is his draft pedigree. As the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, he earned the distinction of “Mr. Irrelevant” and was a relative unknown to most fans. There is a general understanding that the later a player is drafted, the lower their potential is, but that’s just a general trend, not an inalienable rule.

By simply starting 16 games at quarterback, Purdy has far and away exceeded his draft pedigree, but there’s a lingering sense that he cannot be this good because of where he was drafted. Teams miss horribly on first-round quarterbacks all the time. A crucial reason is that every great passer has a hyper-specific mental processing ability that cannot be quantified.

While traits like size, mobility, and arm strength are much easier to quantify and all play a factor in a quarterback’s success, a QB’s innate ability to quickly process a chaotic environment and make the right decision is the true separator. This trait is how Tom Brady went from a sixth-round pick to the greatest quarterback of all time. While Purdy shouldn’t be expected to match Brady’s career, dismissing his early career success as circumstantial is just as ridiculous.

Brock Purdy is actually underrated because he isn’t treated like the young quarterback that he is. This season, he has been the most statistically impressive passer of the football on a rate and efficiency basis and has almost half the career starts of Zach Wilson. The track record of any quarterback performing at this level, this early in their career, is exceptional.

Stat

Brock Purdy

NFL Rank

Completion Percentage

70.2

1st

Yards/Attempt

9.4

1st

Yards/Completion

13.4

1st

Passer Rating

112.3

1st

The question shouldn’t really be: is Brock Purdy the MVP? Is he a top-five quarterback? Instead, the focus should be on a young player putting together a historically great start to their career. And regardless of circumstances, this start points to Purdy becoming a great player who will challenge for MVPs.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *