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How Michigan football, Alabama match up according to advanced analytics services

3:13 min read at 6:51 PM GMT+1

Although games aren’t decided on paper, Michigan football players wouldn’t have to worry about beating Alabama in the Rose Bowl during the College Football Playoff semifinal.

More national titles have been won by the Crimson Tide than by any other team in history, and Nick Saban is especially strong when it comes to winning in the postseason. However, despite all the anticipation, how do the Wolverines compare vs the Tide on paper? As it happens, rather happily.

When it comes to advanced analytics as well as statistics, Michigan football is superior against Alabama in almost all significant metrics. We examine five services to determine where the benefits of the blue and maize and while the margins are slim according to most, the Wolverines do have some edges.

Parker Fleming, Stats-O-War

With a 54.52% chance of winning, the independent statistician has Michigan football defeating Alabama by the slimmest of margins, 25-24. With the exception of RROE (rush rate over expected), the Wolverines are superior in all metrics on both sides of the ball.

 

PFF

PFF only scores and grades the work that teams have done, in contrast to some of the other sophisticated analytics that we’re looking at, which are more predictive in nature. With the exception of special teams, all metrics indicate that the Wolverines are ranked higher than Alabama.

Michigan

Alabama

Overall

1 (95.5)

2 (94.6)

Offense

8 (90.1)

11 (89.1)

Defense

1 (95.6)

2 (93.8)

Special Teams

22 (81.1)

3 (90.1)

ESPN SP+

Bill Connelly is the manager of SP+, which is a predictive service. According to Connelly:

It is true that SP+ aims to be forward-looking and predictive. No reliable forecasting algorithm offers credit for significant victories or exceptionally daring scheduling, so this is not a resume ranking that does. All it is is a gauge of what elements of football are most reliable and long-lasting. Your rating will likely decrease if you win with luck or with poor performance. It will most likely rise if you are unlucky in a defeat and strong.

In this one, Michigan is somewhat elevated over Alabama.

Michigan

Alabama

Overall

1 (32.1)

7 (23.7)

Offense

10 (37.6)

11 (37.1)

Defense

1 (7.4)

9 (15.4)

Special Teams

4 (2.0)

2 (2.0)

FEI

FEI looks more at efficiency and here’s we’re looking at the opponent-adjusted ratings (meaning: Michigan gets no credit for beating up on bad teams). Still, the Wolverines are No. 1.

Michigan

Alabama

Overall

1 (1.45)

11 (.94)

Offense

5 (1.41)

21 (.56)

Defense

4 (1.53)

9 (1.22)

ESPN FPI

Lastly, we have ESPN FPI, which was widely criticized at the start of the season for placing football teams like LSU higher above Michigan. Although it was spot on for Texas, it was largely missed for the Wolverines. However, it’s been fixed very well now that there’s another service that ranks the blue and maize first.

Michigan is the clear favorite to win both the national title (36.2%) and the semifinal (55.9%) according to the fully predictive FPI.

Michigan

Alabama

Overall

1 (27.6)

5 (24.9)

Make NC game

55.9%

44.1%

Win NC game

36.2%

26.7%

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