2024 NFL draft QB Hot Board: Ranking the top 12 quarterbacks
2024 NFL draft QB Hot Board: Ranking the top 12 quarterbacks
1. Caleb Williams, USC
Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 215 pounds
Class: Junior | Projected range: Round 1
Where he shines: Throughout his junior season, Williams—who declined to play in USC’s DirecTV Holiday Bowl matchup against Louisville but hasn’t yet entered the draft—showed qualities worthy of a top choice despite some ups and downs. Scouts regard him as one of the top quarterback prospects in the last ten years due to his arm strength, accuracy, and improvisational abilities, which have propelled him to the top of the quarterback rankings. What is the unique quality of the USC product? No matter what kind of defensive structure is thrown at him, he always has something to say.
This season, Williams threw for 3,633 yards, 30 touchdown passes and 5 interceptions. With the instincts to create off-script, he regularly generates explosive plays outside the normal framework of the offense. On plays outside the pocket, Williams threw for 11 touchdown passes and had an 81.5 QBR. But teams have also forced him to play more within structure this season, and he has responded by completing 72.9% of his throws from inside the pocket (up from 70.3% last season).
“He’s special, and whoever gets him will have a franchise-altering type of talent,” an NFC scout said.
Where he needs work: His reliance on big plays and his ability to play outside of structure can be a gift — and a curse. His success with those passes outside of structure often leads to him welcoming avoidable pressure, as he passes up options available early in progressions in favor of the bigger play. There are plenty of times on tape when Williams could have gotten the ball out quicker, but because he knows he can put on his Superman cape, he instead holds onto it longer than necessary.
The key to Williams’ success at the next level? Being paired with a playcaller who embraces the chaos but also understands how to settle his game down and stress the importance of not getting bored with the easy throws that are there for the taking.
2. Drake Maye, North Carolina
Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 230 pounds
Class: Redshirt sophomore | Projected range: Round 1
Where he shines: Maye will have a lot on his shoulders this season because North Carolina lost a lot of its offensive skill position standouts. Nevertheless, he consistently used his A-level arm strength to attack downfield. After being declared ineligible for the whole season, receiver Devontez Walker’s promotion into the starting lineup helped him acclimate to the new roster. Maye’s ball placement on throws to the intermediate and deep levels of the field is exceptional. He possesses the poise, instincts, and precision to send the ball to his preferred places.
“Considering what he lost [around him], he has looked really good this year when they let him sling it,” an NFC team’s director of scouting texted me early in the season
Before declaring for the draft, Maye had 3,608 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns and another nine scores on the ground. His 63 completions on throws at least 15 yards downfield ranks second in the FBS.
Where he needs work: The lapses in judgment on some throws is concerning, and the UNC offense occasionally gets stagnant for long periods of time during games. Consistency with his accuracy into man coverage is one specific thing to watch. Maye is only completing 41.7% of his passes against those looks — the national average is 50.1% — which matches what we see on tape. His ball placement on quick throws to the short and intermediate areas of the field can be sporadic.
Maye also tends to lock onto his first read too long in hopes of the receiver coming open and then forces throws instead of progressing to the next option. Eliminating some options pre-snap and getting through progressions more efficiently will be important in his development.
3. Jayden Daniels, LSU
Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 210 pounds
Class: Senior | Projected range: Round 1
Where he shines: Prior to his junior year in 2022, Daniels moved from Arizona State, and he soon assumed command of the Tigers’ offensive onslaught. After a disappointing debut season with LSU, several people had doubts, but Daniels has blossomed since opening 2023 with a poor showing against Florida State. With a completion percentage of 72.2%, he concluded his incredible Heisman-winning campaign with 3,812 throwing yards, 40 touchdown passes, and 4 interceptions. He is scheduled to enter the draft after placing first in yards per attempt (11.7) and QBR (95.7).
The biggest reason behind his 2023 surge was deep accuracy. Daniels’ 34 completions of 20-plus air yards rank fourth in the FBS, and he amazingly had 22 touchdown passes and zero interceptions there.
“He’s been the most surprising of the senior passers this year,” said an AFC area scout.
Mel Kiper Jr. explains how Jayden Daniels rose from a midround pick to number eight overall on his big board.
Pocket patience was an issue coming into the season, and many scouts thought Daniels constantly left the pocket prematurely without letting routes develop. But his composure improved exponentially this year. Defenses tried to blitz Daniels, yet that’s when he was at his best. He completed 71.1% of his throws with 17 touchdown passes and zero interceptions when blitzed. Daniels’ running ability also challenged defenses, racking up 1,230 rushing yards (excluding sack yardage lost) and 10 scores on the ground.
Where he needs work: Although he had success on the ground this year, Daniels has a slender frame and takes way too many excruciating hits from defenders. He must learn to save his body by sliding more or simply throwing the ball out of bounds. LSU surrendered 22 sacks of Daniels this season, and five were on failed scramble attempts.
4. Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 213 pounds
Class: Redshirt senior | Projected range: Late Day 1/early Day 2
Where he excels: The left-handed signal-caller became the first player in program history to have at least 400 passing yards in three straight games to start the season, and he has totaled 4,218 passing yards (most in the country), 33 TD throws and 9 interceptions over 13 games — all wins — heading into the College Football Playoff.
The Washington offense thrives on deep shots, and with an FBS-leading 40 completions on passes of 20-plus yards, Penix has an explosive arm and a quick release. He is most comfortable playing within the framework of the offense and is at his best inside the pocket.
Where he needs work: The biggest question raised about Penix will be his injury history — two torn ACLs in his right knee and multiple injuries to his nonthrowing shoulder — though he played in at least 13 games in both 2022 and 2023. A lot of evaluators saw him as a Day 3 player coming into the season but acknowledge that he will keep climbing draft boards as he distances himself from those injury concerns.
Outside of durability, scouts wanted to see how well Penix played when defenses knocked him off his initial launch point in the pocket. He can easily scan the field and make throws from a clean pocket, but there are still questions about how he handles pressure. Through 13 games, Penix has only been hit on 19.9% of his dropbacks (eighth-least in the nation) and sacked 10 times. But when he gets outside the pocket, he’s completing 41.2% of his throws, 108th in the country.
5. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 202 pounds
Class: Junior | Projected range: Late Day 1/early Day 2
Where he excels: The Wolverines are placing more trust in McCarthy this season, and it’s paying dividends. He is completing 74.2% of his passes (second in the country) and has been accurate to all levels of the field. His 89.2 Total QBR is third in the FBS. One of the more impressive parts of McCarthy’s game is his efficiency on play-action, where he is completing 77.8% of his passes (63 attempts) and taking advantage of defenses selling out to stop the run.
I really like the ball placement that I’ve see on McCarthy’s tape this season, too. He hardly ever forces his intended targets to work to haul in passes, putting throws within their body frames. He has only been off-target on 8% of his throws this season. Overall, he has 2,630 yards, 19 TD passes and 4 interceptions this season. And check out his third-down numbers: 71.9% completion percentage, 10.1 yards per attempt, 5 TD throws and zero picks.
Where he needs to work: He had a history of making poor decisions, as seen by the two pick-sixes he made against TCU in the College Football Playoff game last season. In order to prevent costly turnovers, he actually needed to learn how to survive another day by tossing the ball out of bounds or nailing his checkdown. He’s done better there this season, for the most part. Three of McCarthy’s four interceptions came in a single game, back in September when he played Bowling Green.
Many scouts were looking forward to seeing how McCarthy would perform down the stretch against Penn State and Ohio State, but he was only asked to throw a combined 28 times over those two games. Will he turn it loose more in the College Football Playoff?
6. Bo Nix, Oregon
Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 217 pounds
Class: Senior | Projected range: Mid-to-late Day 2
Where he excels: Operating in an up-tempo hurry-up offense, Nix wins with a lot of pre-snap decisions. He forces defenses to come up and tackle in the underneath areas, making him the perfect passer for Oregon’s offense, which aims to stretch defenses horizontally and pick certain spots to make throws down the field. Nix shows a high-level understanding of space reads and leverage, and he does a good job distributing the ball to the Ducks’ playmakers. This season, he has thrown for 4,145 passing yards, 40 touchdown passes and only 3 interceptions.
Bo Nix discusses his bowl game plans and reflects on his final season in college football.
“He’s been able to reinvent himself because it’s an easier offense … and they’re loaded on the perimeter,” said an NFC area scout.
On tape, there isn’t a more efficient passer in college football than Nix. He leads the country in completion rate by 3% (77.2%) and has thrown multiple touchdowns in all 13 games, passing Kellen Moore for the longest streak by a FBS player in the past 20 seasons. Nix keeps plays alive, too, with the scrambling ability to escape and gain positive yards when his initial reads aren’t available. He has six rushing TDs in 2023.
Where he needs work: Nix’s limitations are apparent on the more challenging downfield passes. While he’s surgical in the underneath areas, he’s hesitant to push the ball to the intermediate-to-deep spots. His 6.4 air yards per pass attempt ranks 120th in the country.
7. Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 217 pounds
Class: Senior | Projected range: Early Day 3
Where he excels: Rattler was among the best QBs in the SEC despite the team’s 5-7 record. Watch the tape from his season-opening performance against North Carolina. Yes, he was sacked nine times, but he finished that game 30-of-39 (76.9%) for 353 passing yards. Then he had a strong first half on the road against top-ranked Georgia two weeks later, going 16-of-18 for 152 yards and a touchdown pass to help the Gamecocks to a 14-3 halftime lead. (One of the best teams in the country eventually came back, though.)
When Rattler is protected, he has excelled. He looked like a more decisive and consistent player this season. With B-level arm strength to drive the ball, his confidence and comfort in the South Carolina scheme put him back on the draft radar, and he recently declared for the 2024 class. Rattler finished with 3,186 yards, 19 touchdown throws and 8 interceptions.
Where he needs work: The South Carolina offensive line has struggled to find continuity, leaving Rattler pressured at a high rate (38.9% of dropbacks, 24th-most in the FBS) and taking 40 sacks (fourth-most in the FBS). And while he completed 53.2% of his passes under pressure (12th-best), he missed some opportunities to get the ball out quicker by simply hitting hot reads or built-in routes to avoid incoming pressure.
8. Michael Pratt, Tulane
Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 220 pounds
Class: Senior | Projected range: Early Day 3
Where he excels: After Pratt helped Tulane to a huge Cotton Bowl win over USC last January, scouts were buzzing about him coming into this season. He was nearly flawless in the opener, too, going 14-of-15 for 294 passing yards and four touchdown passes against South Alabama. But he suffered a left knee injury in the fourth quarter that sidelined him for two games, returning against Nicholls in Week 4 but missing a good matchup against Ole Miss, which was costly. He closed his season with 2,406 yards, 22 TD throws and five interceptions over 11 games before opting out of Tulane’s Military Bowl game.
The program’s leader in career touchdown passes (90), Pratt has shown slightly above-average arm strength and seems to always be in control. His three-level accuracy and comfort in executing NFL concepts will be key components of his evaluation.
Where he needs work: Pratt isn’t able to escape when things around him begin to crumble, which means he has to improve in picking up those pressure points when reading the defensive structure. Scouts also want to see how he plays against better competition; Pratt has already accepted an invitation to the Senior Bowl, which will give him an opportunity to showcase his skill set.
9. Jordan Travis, Florida State
Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 212 pounds
Class: Senior | Projected range: Late Day 3/UDFA
Where he excels: The process is hardly ever conventional with Travis, but the end result is usually positive. He has made a name for himself with his playmaking ability, showing creativity outside of structure. He’s one of the more talented dual-threat passers in the 2024 group, having rushed for seven TDs in four straight seasons. And Travis had 18 career games with a passing and rushing score in the same game, a Florida State record.
Travis also showed more consistency from the pocket this season. Overall, he threw for 2,756 passing yards, 20 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions, and his 79.7 Total QBR is seventh in the country. Travis’ season came to an end after a lower left leg injury in November.
Where he needs work: All that said about his ability outside of structure, Travis tends to rely on it too often. Issues pop up when teams are able to put pressure on him, and I want to see him stand in the pocket and deliver under duress more. Travis’ ability to make plays has scouts excited, but more consistent play inside structure is important. And because of his leg injury, he will miss out on some crucial parts of the pre-draft process; scouts were looking forward to seeing him compete in an all-star game.
10. Sam Hartman, Notre Dame
Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 210 pounds
Class: Senior | Projected range: Late Day 3/UDFA
Where he excels: The ACC’s all-time leader in touchdown passes (110) elected to finish his career in South Bend, an opportunity to show he could operate a traditional offense instead of the unconventional Wake Forest scheme. Notre Dame relies more on rhythm and timing, and Hartman threw for 2,689 passing yards, 24 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions in 12 games before opting out of bowl play (Notre Dame will play in the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl).
“I’m so glad that he got out of that Wake offense because he wasn’t doing anything that projects to the next level,” said an AFC area scout.
Getting the ball out quickly hasn’t been a problem for Hartman, as he’s a quick decision-maker. But he has also been accurate on deep throws, even though he has arm strength limitations. Hartman had 11 touchdowns to one interception and an 88.5 QBR on throws 20-plus yards downfield this season.
Where he needs work: While he has had plenty of success in the pocket, pressure has rushed him into making premature decisions. When under pressure this season, Hartman only completed 44.3% of his throws, which ranks 83rd in the FBS. He doesn’t have the playmaking ability to create extra opportunities outside of the normal structure of plays with any consistency.
11. Joe Milton III, Tennessee
Height: 6-foot-5 | Weight: 235 pounds
Class: Senior | Projected range: Late Day 3/UDFA
Where he excels: After starting his career at Michigan in 2018, Milton transferred to Tennessee in 2021. His arm talent stands out right away — he has the arm strength to throw the football through a brick wall. But while Milton attempted maybe too many fastballs in the past, I saw improved patience and better decision-making in the underneath areas this season.
Milton finished the regular season with 2,813 passing yards, 20 touchdown throws and 5 interceptions, but he has not yet announced whether he will play in the Citrus Bowl. He is coming off his best game of the season, a 383-yard, four-touchdown passing performance against Vanderbilt (he also added two rushing scores).
Where he needs work: Scouts were excited to see if Milton could make a leap during his first full season as a starter in an offense that’s known to stretch defenses. But as an AFC scout said, “He’ll wow you up close with his size and arm, but we’re still waiting on all of it to click with him, and it just hasn’t happened consistently enough yet.”
While Milton’s physical traits are apparent, he still struggles with deep accuracy. He completed 28.6% of his passes of 20-plus air yards (103rd in the FBS). Touch on vertical throws remains a concern despite the arm strength. He has to learn to layer the ball to his desired spots.
12. Austin Reed, Western Kentucky
Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 220 pounds
Class: Senior | Projected range: Late Day 3/UDFA
Playing in a fast-paced system that aims to attack every part of the field, Reed showed consistent improvement in his last season. Reed has a pretty average arm, but he makes rapid decisions about leverage on the perimeter and uses the space that teams offer him to get the ball out quickly. He has a solid understanding of NFL concepts because the Western Kentucky playbook makes extensive use of 10 and 11 personnel groupings. Reed is aggressive when attacking one-on-one situations and is already at ease anticipating throws that are likely to become open. He passed for 3,340 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions during the season before deciding not to participate in the Famous Toastery Bowl.
He was excellent in the red zone this season, too. Inside the 20-yard line, he completed 62% of his passes (50 attempts) for 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Reed also added four rushing scores and didn’t take a single sack in that area all year.
Where he needs work: I’d like to see Reed become more consistent when facing pressure. In those situations, he completed 44.4% of his passes (tied for 80th in FBS), and five of his 11 interceptions came when defenses sped him up. Reed has some mobility, and the Hilltoppers’ offense incorporated him on designed QB runs, but it’s not an area where he will stand out at the next level.